Georgia finished 2022 with double-digit economic growth that is one of the highest indicators in the region and the world. Despite rising risks of global recession, thanks to external factors, last year turned out to be successful for Georgia, according to all international financial organizations.

The year 2023 will be also full of challenges and surprises for the world.

The issue of war remains unresolved, US-China relations are further straining, the West is facing the threat of sliding into recession amid record high inflation and tighter monetary policy. Taken all this into account, international and local financial institutions predict that this year the Georgian economy will grow from 4% to 6%.

Government forecast a 5% growth

The government predicts a 5% economic growth this year. According to the alternative prepared by the government, the so-called optimistic scenario, Georgian economy may grow by 6.3%, in case of the pessimistic scenario, the economy will grow by 2.5%.

National Bank of Georgia – a 4% growth

The National Bank believes that 4% growth of Georgia's GDP is the most realistic for 2023.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) — 4%

IMF expects a 4% GDP growth in Georgia this year against the previous forecast of 5.8%. The IMF notes in its review that the Georgian economy has performed strongly in 2022 and thus far adverse spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, buoyant tourism revenues, a surge in war-related inbound migration and financial inflows, and a rise in transit trade through Georgia.

The World Bank- 4.4%

According to the report, against this backdrop, economic growth in Georgia is expected to ease to 4.4 percent in 2023, while remaining above the regional average (2.4 percent excluding the Russian Federation and Ukraine). It also said that regional output was now expected to grow by 1.4% in 2023, substantially better than the previously anticipated 0.1%. Growth in the South Caucasus is projected to slow sharply from 7 percent in 2022 to 3 percent in 2023, as growth decelerates in key trading partners, including the European Union.

The Asian Development Bank- a 4.5% growth

The Georgian economy is expected to slow in 2023 with fewer migrants from the Russian Federation and receding financial inflows, before recovering slightly in 2024 according to a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report. Gross domestic product (GDP) in Georgia is forecast to be 4.5% in 2023, according to the  Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2023, the bank’s annual economic publication released today. Growth is expected to accelerate to 5% in 2024 driven by continued gains in services. At almost 12% in 2022, inflation is expected to halve to 6% in 2023 before reducing further to 4% next year, approaching the central bank’s 3% target. This is mainly due to tight monetary policy, weaker domestic demand, and improved supply chains. Investment is projected to expand by 5.5% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024 as business confidence continues to improve. The budget deficit is projected to decline to the equivalent of 2.7% of GDP in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024. 

Galt&Taggart — 4.8%

Galt&Taggart expects growth at 4.8% in 2023 after 10.2% growth in E2022. If all downside risks realize, then cumulatively growth may slow to 1.2% from 4.8% baseline projection in 2023. In upside scenario, growth may reach 6.9%.

TBC Capital —a 6.4% growth

TBC Capital upgrades economic growth for 2023 from 5% to 6.4%.